Why hasn't Belarus sent troops to Ukraine to support Russia's invasion?
The Hundred #25: August 9, 2022
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“While Belarus provided the Russian army with a staging ground for an offensive towards Kyiv, and allowed Russian missile launches and aircraft sorties from Belarusian territory, it never formally participated in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially this was probably due to Russian expectation of a blitzkrieg in Ukraine, but in the subsequent months It was more likely due to Lukashenka’s reluctance. Belarusian armed forces are small, equipped with mostly older weapons, and not well-trained for 21st century combat. Additionally, there is lack of support for the Russian war in Ukraine among Belarusians, including in the armed forces.”
“Belarus and Russia have a complex history of integration, shaped by Belarusian anxieties about threats to their independence. In 2020, President Lukashenka faced huge domestic protests over fraudulent elections, but held on to power through Russian assistance; he remains highly dependent on their continuing support. Lukashenka is thus caught between obligations to Putin, who wants Belarus to join the war, and Belarusians, who would oppose it. As a result, he is attempting to walk a careful line between limited support for Russia (notably, allowing Russia to invade from Belarus) and avoiding direct involvement that would risk regime-threatening protest.”
“Despite significant logistical support, Belarusian troops don’t (yet) participate actively in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenka’s rhetoric suggests that they still might – depending on the course of events – but his hitherto restraint has practical reasons: Belarusian troops are barely combat-ready. Just an estimated 15.000 soldiers, mostly special units, are operational and a rather easy target for the Ukrainians. Furthermore, polling indicates that less than ten percent of Belarusians, half the die-hard regime supporters, would favor a direct participation in the war. So, if thousands of Lukashenka’s best troops were to return in coffins, this could nurture new unrest at home.”
We’re trying something new: Forecast. For each Forecast edition, we provide a falsifiable statement on a subject related to the newsletter and we all get the chance to vote on it. In this case, vote yes if you believe Belarus will send troops to Ukraine to support Russia’s invasion. If you believe it won’t, vote no.
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