Why do Italians replace their Prime Minister so often?
The Hundred #23: August 3, 2022
Thank you for reading The Hundred, a newsletter in which experts provide analysis on questions that matter. We’re trying a new feature called Forecast this edition. Find out more (and vote) below. Subscribe to support the project.
"Italy has always been a politically and economically fragmented country. Attempts at manipulating the party system via majoritarian electoral systems to make it bipolar – hence more “stable” failed. In order to keep the executive in check in a country historically prone to authoritarian drifts, the framers of the Constitution outlined an institutional set-up based on the centrality of the parliament. In 1948-2022 Italy had 70 governments but only 18 general elections, about one every 4 years on average. The composition of the parliament has not changed that much. In this sense, Italy is less unstable than most external observers assume."
“Changes in prime minister are the result of shifts in political power, personal ambition and political maneuvering. Still, not all changes in prime minister are equal. In Italy's 'First Republic' (1948-1994) prime ministers changed often, but the same party, Christian Democracy, formed the core of every government. Since 1994, however, there has been much greater political fragmentation, and changes of prime minister indicate deeper political realignments. Fragmentation has endured despite attempts to move away from proportional representation. Recent election laws push parties to merge or ally, but unity is artificial - after elections parties can fragment and MPs change allegiance.”
“Mario Draghi led the 68th Italian government in 75 years. Yet, while Italy had 52 governments between 1946 and 1993, the end of the First Republic meant a change of the electoral system that has become more majoritarian since. This has encouraged coalitions, but coalitions easily break apart, and factions do not help stability. The appointment of a technocrat as PM and the balance of the Houses also affect governmental turnover. When looking at the data, it’s clear that Italy is one of the countries that has experienced most government crises. Continuity of government would help to answer this problem.”
We asked Substack to implement polls and they did! That means we’re trying something new: Forecast. For each Forecast edition, we provide a falsifiable statement on a subject related to the newsletter and we all get the chance to vote on it. In this case, if you believe Giorgia Meloni will become Italy’s next Prime Minister, vote yes; if you believe she won’t, vote no. After a while, we’ll look back and see how accurate (or inaccurate) we’ve been.
That’s it for The Hundred #23. Please share this post with friends and colleagues if you found it interesting. If you want to learn more about this topic, here’s a list of further reading. To support the project, subscribe below.