Why is Le Pen such a threat to Macron?
The Hundred #4: April 13, 2022
“Macron is still likely to win – though it will be close. Le Pen’s image has changed in France and people have become used to her ideas. Having Zemmour, another far-right candidate, running to be President has helped her to look more like a moderate centrist politician. She no longer claims to be anti-EU, which has also helped attract centre-right voters who think the EU should be reformed but not abandoned. Finally, she could benefit from high abstention levels: people who dislike both candidates, or who assume Macron will win, may simply decide not to vote on 24 April.”
“Marine Le Pen is a much bigger threat to Macron this year because many – not all – left wing and working class voters are widely anti-Macron. Last time the Left moved en masse to support Macron in Round Two. Many won’t vote this time and some may even vote for Le Pen because she has left-wing social policies and is anti-EU/Nato. She has successfully, though misleadingly, softened her image by concentrating on issues vital to ordinary people, like high prices. In brief, Macron was unknown last time. Now he is the incumbent. And the French electorate traditionally detests incumbents.”
“We are faced, again, with a choice between Macron and Le Pen. He won by a large margin last time: it will not be so clear cut in 2022. The two weeks of campaign ahead are going to be extremely tough: Marine Le Pen came out with a left leaning programme, albeit one for “society and civilisation”. She wants to speak to the more vulnerable populations, those who don’t feel represented by Macron: Gilets Jaunes but not only. She has already toned down her rhetoric on Europe. It is going to be a hard fight for Macron.”
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