Why has Erdogan decided to reconcile with Saudi Arabia?
The Hundred #9: May 12, 2022
The Hundred is a newsletter in which 3 experts answer 1 question in 100 words or less. You can subscribe for free. This edition, three experts of Turkish foreign policy explain why Erdogan decided to mend ties with Saudi Arabia.
“Erdogan’s effort is part of a strategy to mend ties with regional countries after its post-Arab uprisings policy left Turkey isolated. But there is a more pressing concern: Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in 2023 and Erdoğan is facing an economic meltdown, growing backlash against Syrian refugees and declining popularity. The country’s economic woes have been exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which led to soaring global energy and commodity prices. Rising inflation only makes matters worse. Erdoğan desperately needs foreign capital. He is hoping that mending ties will attract Saudi investment and rekindle trade.”
“Erdogan has always known how to prioritize his enemies, making peace with the old ones as new more dangerous threats emerge. When Saudi Arabia threw its support behind Egypt’s 2013 anti-Islamist coup, then carried out a high profile murder on Turkish territory, Erdogan felt compelled to push back. Now, he feels more threatened by a failing economy at home and, abroad, a deepening axis of unfriendly neighbors stretching from Paris and Athens through Cairo and Jerusalem to the Gulf. By making up with Riyadh, Erdogan hopes to find some new funds and peel Saudi Arabia away from this bloc.”
“It’s a sad reality of our world order that money talks as much as it does. 10 years into his rule, Erdogan was still an idealistic politician. Now, 20 years in, he has come to realize that the West will be hard-pressed to isolate a regime as powerful as the Saudi monarchy, no matter how fanatical, corrupt, and murderous it may be. Just as Erdogan abandoned his lip service to democracy in Turkey, he’s now adapting to this realpolitik by seeking not to challenge such regimes but rather to draw their riches to prop up his own dictatorship at home.”
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Erdogan likes to think he is the Sultan of a great Empire like the Ottomons or modern Russia. Thing is Turkey doesnt have anything of value except cheap holidays. They rely on the West to bail it out financially but their loyalty isnt to the West. They are like Pakistan in that regard. They dislike their Christian overlords but need them for the money. They therefore settle this inferiority complex by playing a double game, such as Pakistan/Taliban and Turkey/Aegean sea.
Turkey has more in common with Russia than Europe. Its a deeply nationalistic country bordering fascism.