What would need to happen for the Democrats to have a better than expected result in the midterms?
The Hundred #2: April 6, 2022
“Incumbent presidents almost always lose seats in midterm elections. It remains likely that the Democrats will lose control of at least one chamber of Congress. To buck the trend, three pathways should give the Democrats hope. First, Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine has generally received positive reviews. If that’s on voters’ minds, it will help. Second, the Trumpified GOP still alienates a lot of people. An extremist candidate making headlines could severely damage the GOP nationally. Third, turnout models could be wildly off. If they are, polling could dramatically misrepresent the voters who actually show up.”
“Democrats should not do anything differently in the lead up to the midterms. Few things are law-like in political science, but one rule is that there is typically a swing against the president’s party in the midterms. History is not on their side, but what is on their side is the competitive circumstances that midterm loss creates in Congress. Namely, shifts in party control create the opportunity for offensive rather than defensive strategies, a much easier position for the president to manage. An added bonus is that inter-party conflict facilitates media coverage, contributing to the appearance of a unified party.”
“A loss of less than 5 seats would allow Democrats to retain their House majority. That has happened 4 times in the last century: once after the September 11th attacks, once after Franklin Roosevelt was elected and saved the country from the Great Depression, once in 1998, after the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal, and once in 1962 shortly after the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis. All of these are one-off events that are hard to predict, but also very rare. The fundamentals — high inflation, an unpopular president — will likely dictate the outcome. So, in short, a lot would have to happen.”
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