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“Celebrating the Taliban takeover of Kabul in 2021, Al-Qaida proclaimed “Congratulations!” “These events prove that the Way of Jihad… leads to victory and empowerment.” Longstanding partners, Al-Qaida celebrated Taliban successes against the U.S. as deeply connected to their own global and regional missions. Taliban rule solidifies Afghanistan as a place for Al-Qaida to expand, as well as enhancing their reputation as a competent military partner and political force. The presence of the Islamic State as a small, but persistent Taliban rival post-American withdrawal, solidifies Al-Qaida’s position as a vital Taliban security partner moving ahead, entrenching Al-Qaida’s political position in Afghanistan.”
“The Taliban’s takeover hasn’t changed the game for al-Qaida, whose operatives were in Afghanistan before the takeover and continue to use the country as a haven. Despite their long and close relationship, the Taliban will likely restrict overt al-Qaida activities in their country (recruiting drives, foreign fighter flows, training camps) to avoid U.S. “over the horizon” strikes in Afghanistan, which would damage the Taliban’s credibility and efforts to reintegrate into international society. The Taliban is already challenged by a growing Islamic State insurgency and needs stability to consolidate its rule after a rapid and unsteady takeover last summer.”
“Al Qaeda has acquired a safe base of operations. Al Qaeda and the Taliban (particularly the Haqqani Network) enjoy high-end cooperation characterized by relationships that are underpinned by ideological affinities and trust. That trust has been built on shared experiences and personal relationships forged since jihad against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the early 1980s. The Taliban’s political leadership is unwilling to break these ties. Even if there was the political will, the Haqqani Network would resist. The international isolation of the Taliban allows Al Qaeda to present itself as especially useful, thereby strengthening its foothold in the country.”
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