What difference will winter make for Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
#43: With Gustav Gressel, Ruth Deyermond, Andrew Metrick
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“Extreme cold favours the offensive as all vehicles can travel frozen ground and lack of vegetation eases spotting and reconnaissance. Ukraine may try to use these conditions. Melting snow followed by freezing nights make counter-offensives more difficult for Ukrainians, as they rely more on wheeled vehicles that get stuck in the mud more easily. Compared to operative and logistical issues – availability of forces, systems, and especially ammunition – winter plays a minor role. Russian operations are most hampered by inadequate tactical leadership and bad coordination of forces, while Ukrainian operations are hampered most by shortages of ammunition and armoured vehicles.”
“There was an expectation that the winter would slow the course of the war, and certainly we haven’t seen any major offensives from either side recently. But time is critical for both Russia and Ukraine – the longer the war drags on, the more fragile international support for Ukraine and domestic support in Russia is likely to become – so a complete pause is unlikely. The horrendous conditions experienced by Russian mobilized men, who often lack adequate food, clothing, and equipment, mean the winter is likely to test the limits of Russian morale. Ultimately, that may favour Ukraine.”
“One word: morale. The current war has underscored the importance of morale when judging combat performance. Ukraine currently enjoys a substantial advantage in this area. The morale gulf between Ukrainian and Russian forces has only been widened by significant Ukrainian victories in both the northern and southern operational directions. While not a perfect analogy, the Winter War shows what a well-motivated, winter hardened force can achieve. While trendlines for Ukraine are positive, one must retain realistic expectations. The winter phase of the conflict is most likely to continue to feature punctuated equilibriums; lulls in combat followed by periods of maneuver.”
If you want to learn more about this topic, here’s a list of further reading:
Winter Soldier, Winter Misery: Will Cold Weather Hand An Advantage To Ukraine Or Russia? RFERL, Mike Eckel
Winter and Beyond: An Inflection Point in the War Over Ukraine. War on the Rocks, Michael Kofman and Ryan Evans
Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals explain why the war hangs in the balance. The Economist, NA
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