Is Western unity over Russia sanctions likely to last more than a few months?
The Hundred #1: April 6, 2022
“Yes, Western sanctions are likely to endure more than a few months. First, because they were undertaken when we thought Russia would win the war; it took more resolve to impose them against a Russia whose power was increasing. Second, Russian conduct in the war is so repulsive that government will appear to reward war crimes if sanctions are removed. Third, Putin and Russia are unrepentant. Removing sanctions will embolden them to further damage European security. And fourth, Ukraine’s top notch information operations contrasting cosseted Westerners with the horrors Ukraine is enduring will shame objectors.”
“Russia's President Vladimir Putin has made it very easy for us. Just imagine for a moment if the aggressor had been less simple to identify and the aggression less brutal. We would probably have struggled to agree on when to trigger the sanctions. We should be aware that our unity is fragile. As soon as there will be a "peace agreement" in Ukraine, first voices will certainly call for a new dialogue with Russia. Yet our unity is our greatest strength. It is the only way we can credibly deter further Russian aggression.”
“In London and in Warsaw, governments are briefing against any normalisation with Russia and the maintenance of sanctions in the event the war ends without a fully agreed peace agreement. Their expectation is Paris, Rome and Berlin will be more willing to lift them. Meanwhile in Washington the question of sanctions lifting — when is enough and for what exactly — is the focus of an increasingly important behind the scenes debate in foreign policy circles. A lot of people who have found themselves on the same page at war will find themselves arguing fiercely the moment the guns fall silent.”
That’s it for The Hundred #1. Please share this post with friends and colleagues if you found it interesting. Here’s further reading.