Interview: German Election
#86: With Marcel Dirsus
Welcome to The Hundred! Germany just held elections. Since we have our own Germany expert on the team, I decided to ask Marcel a few questions about the vote. If you would like to support our work, you can subscribe for free.
Marcel Dirsus is a political scientist and foreign policy expert and the author of How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive. My questions are in bold, his answers in block quotes.
What happened?
Excluding parties that didn’t reach the 5% threshold needed to join parliament, the results are as follows: Centre-right CDU/CSU 28.5%, far-right AfD 20.8%, centre-left SPD 16.4%, Greens 11.6%, far-left Linke 8.8%.
Can you put these results into context?
All the parties that were previously in government lost votes. For Olaf Scholz’ Social Democrats, it was the worst result in a national election since 1887, when the Chancellor of the German Empire was Otto von Bismarck. The Free Democrats didn’t even make it into parliament. While CDU/CSU won, they were hoping for a better result. Among young voters, the far-left Linke gained a lot of support.
How about the far-right?
The far-right AfD doubled its share of the vote. In eastern Germany, it hasn’t just become a mainstream political party, it’s dominant. To get an idea of just how divided Germany is, look at the map below. Blue is the far-right:
What happens next?
Friedrich Merz (CDU) is likely to be Germany’s next Chancellor. But before that can happen, he needs to form a coalition. While a coalition with the far-right would give him enough seats, his Christian Democrats have ruled out governing with the AfD. That leaves just one possible coalition: CDU/CSU and SPD. This was previously referred to as a “Grand Coalition” when the SPD was still the 2nd largest party. Coalition talks started today.
Are Social Democrats likely to agree to a coalition with CDU/CSU?
Yes. Some Social Democrats will argue that the SPD needs time outside of government to renew itself and that forming a coalition with the conservatives will ruin the party. And since Friedrich Merz has moved the conservatives to the right, it will be especially difficult to find agreement in areas like migration policy.
That said, the pressure to form a coalition will be intense because there are no real alternatives and Germany needs a stable government. If CDU/CSU and SPD fail to form a coalition, Europe’s largest economy will be left without direction. There are also areas in which Christian Democrats and Social Democrats will find it comparatively easy to agree. Most notably, both now believe that Germany needs to take its own security much more seriously.
Merz wants a deal by Easter, but that’s ambitious.
What are the risks?
While an agreement between centre-right and centre-left would provide a stable government in Berlin, coalitions across the political spectrum always risk empowering radicals because they can give voters the impression that voting doesn’t change much. This coalition is a necessity to prevent something worse, but nobody will be excited by it. Many will be disappointed.
What does all this mean for German foreign policy?
This is the most challenging moment for Germany since reunification. Just about every “certainty” in German foreign policy has collapsed. Germany’s Russia policy has failed and its economic dependance on China makes it vulnerable to Beijing.
And most importantly of all, the United States is no longer considered to be a reliable ally to Germany. In that context, Merz made a truly remarkable statement over the weekend. His absolute priority, he said, would be to strengthen Europe to really achieve independence from the USA. Even just a few years ago, a statement like this would have been unthinkable. Now, it has widespread appeal in German politics.
How about Ukraine?
What happens in Ukraine will have a massive impact on Germany. If Ukraine doesn’t get NATO membership or effective security guarantees, there’s a very real risk that Putin will simply attack again in a few years. But as Donald Trump has made clear, Europeans will have to play a central role in bolstering Ukrainian security. Many of the measures that might be necessary to protect Ukraine, like deploying Western troops to the country, would be incredibly controversial within Germany.
That’s it for this edition of The Hundred. Please share this post with friends and colleagues if you found it interesting. If you’re reading this via Substack and not email, you can also restack it. Thanks!
This is a big one, thank you!