If Putin were to lose power this year, what's the most likely way it would happen?
The Hundred #3: April 6, 2022
“It's hard to believe we're even discussing the possibility. A month ago it would have seemed ridiculous. Now the probability of a coup is still extremely small but non-zero. If there's any threat to Putin's power, it's not from the street but from cracks within the security services. If they feel sufficiently threatened by his actions, or come to see his rule as a liability, the chance of a palace coup increases. Even then, the possibility of direct action remains low.”
“The most likely way for Putin to lose power this year would be to make another strategic blunder that leads the West to impose the full set of sanctions, including gas and oil, and to deliver comprehensive offensive weapons to Ukraine. Combined with the potential overstretch of his relationship with the security services due to unrealistic expectations or punishments over military underperformance in Ukraine, this could set in motion a process of disillusionment and alienation within the elites. Even a lucky autocrat who hopes to be sanctions-proof, coup-proof and criticism-proof can overplay his hand at home and abroad.”
“I don’t think that Vladimir Putin will lose power this year. Those who have the capacity to depose him are those who seem to have no incentive to remove Putin, as they appear to share his goal of continuing the campaign against Ukraine. But, if Putin were to lose power, then this will likely be because of an elite fracture widened by a battle over increasingly scarce resources, as sanctions impact the economy more profoundly, and if popular grievances shift from the West to the Kremlin. Then, some elites may defect from the regime or directly try to remove Putin.”
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