How does Russia's invasion of Ukraine impact Central Asia?
The Hundred #18: July 6, 2022
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“The impact is strong and multi-faceted, and the outcomes are yet unclear. The war has destroyed the political order and geopolitical equilibrium in the post-Soviet space. Central Asians fear both Russia’s weakening commitment to regional security, and Kremlin’s militant neo-imperialism. It is increasingly difficult to maintain good relations with Russia and the West. War-related sanctions and counter-sanctions, trade disruptions and price increases, and the overall downfall of the Russian economy render a massive stress-test for the economies of the region and livelihood of its people.”
“From disrupting one of the region’s main trade routes to concerns over Russia’s reliability as a security provider and fears of potential annexation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Central Asia. Migration is where much of the pain will be felt. The region contains two of the most migration dependent countries in the world, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. One third of their economies comes from migrants, primarily in Russia. With Russia in economic turmoil, remittances are expected to plummet between 40% and 20%, causing further misery for countries that were just emerging from the pandemic.”
“With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and a very distracted Russia, we are witnessing a new era of independence and confidence in Central Asia. The war in Ukraine undermined trust in Russia among countries in Central Asia. Although they will not make large public pronouncements in this regard, they are much freer to embark on their own trajectories. While many of the countries are insecure domestically, they are increasingly confident in their foreign policy. They are not pawns of great powers, but independent actors who have more leverage over great powers than at any time in their histories.”
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