Can the Taliban be isolated?
#71: Asfandyar Mir, Tricia Bacon and Graeme Smith
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The Taliban took over Afghanistan after a military offensive that shook the world in August 2021. Since their takeover, despite promises that they would govern differently, they quickly went back to their old ways. They have brutalized Afghanistan’s women, ethnic minorities, and former members of the security forces. But can the international community isolate the Taliban?
It’s difficult. The Taliban have mounted vigorous diplomatic efforts to court regional states. In spite of the Taliban’s contention with the Western world and Pakistan, many in the region, including China, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan and even India, have been willing to accommodate them diplomatically. In January, Chinese President Xi Jinping accepted the Taliban’s ambassador in Beijing. The principle of not normalizing a regime which plays footsie with terrorists and engages in gender apartheid is the right one, but we should not be under any illusion about the extent of our leverage or the state of the Taliban’s foreign relations.
The Taliban regime is in no man’s land. On the one hand, it has not been formally recognized by any country, even those that recognized its government during the 1990s. The West generally treats the Taliban regime as a pariah state, though there are channels of communication. On the other hand, the Taliban regime enjoys significant de facto recognition. Russia, China, India, and multiple Gulf States have a diplomatic presence in Kabul and engage with the Taliban. The combination falls short of the Taliban’s ambitions for international acceptance, but it also prevents the West from effectively isolating the Taliban.
The Taliban cannot be isolated. Since their takeover, diplomats have talked to the Taliban on urgent matters: protection of embassies, humanitarian access. Engagement grew over time to include cooperation on trade and counter-terrorism. An impasse remains on other topics — women’s rights, ‘inclusive’ government — and those disagreements make it harder to work with the Taliban on security cooperation and economic stabilization. That is bad news for regional stability. It also hurts the people of Afghanistan, especially women and girls, who suffer the worst effects of the financial hardships that arise from the country’s banishment from global institutions.
Further reading:
America Can’t Isolate the Taliban, Foreign Affairs, Asfandyar Mir and Andrew Watkins
A Reality Check on Afghanistan’s Isolation Under the Taliban, The Diplomat, Shanthie Mariet D’Souza
The World Has No Choice But to Work With the Taliban, Foreign Affairs, Graeme Smith and Ibraheem Bahiss
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